Curse

tanwarv · Jul 18, 2005, 06:49 PM // 18:49

As many of you are aware, material prices that traders are offering when they buy items have taken a bad turn as a following this latest patch (7/13). Examples include fur squares, many dyes, many runes, and most other rare materials. For the items that are impacted, a trader will offer 10% or less of his own selling price.

How did this happen? I believe this is a side effect of the fact that traders have limited stocks of all items, combined with the current independence of buy/sell prices. I believe the way things work today is if lots of people buy items, “sell” prices go up, and if no one buys items, “sell” prices go down. The opposite holds true for “buy” prices. However, I believe either something got messed up in the latest patch (for a while there, many items were selling in 1+ platinum range, but buyback prices were set to 1gp), or there was an economic spiral that caused “sell” prices to creep up, while “buy” prices stayed down. Without more data than I have available, I cannot see why this has occurred.

What has happened in the short term is for certain items, no one wants to use the trader to buy or sell anything. Sell prices for things like black dye and fur creep up, while the buy prices do not keep pace. This would be somewhat okay if not for the fact that humans when selling try to use the trader prices as a guideline, resulting in an overall inflation in prices.

How can this be fixed? I believe the answer is as simple as setting “buy” prices to be a fixed percent of “sell” prices, and leaving everything else alone (i.e. forcing a stock check whenever someone wants to buy something, lowering prices when stock gets high, and increasing prices when stock gets low).

What should that percentage be? I personally don’t see the harm in making this percentage fixed at the max current percent (80%, based on some other posts I’ve read). Supply and demand should then kick in and prices would stabilize at the true “value” of an item. No uncontrolled inflation or deflation (assuming that the overall average of gold per person in the economy stays constant). I also can understand at setting this percent on the low end (in order to continue to make traders a gold sink), possibly as low as 50%, in order to keep those that want to avoid trading to humans (like myself) happy. To put this into perspective, a real “auction house” (one that does not take a cut of the trade) would be equivalent to setting this percentage at 100%.

Why do I want to push for a “fixed” percent rather than the current “variable” percent? From the many complaints I’ve seen, many people agree that system does not work, nor does it reflect a realistic economy.

Thoughts?

Algren Cole · Jul 18, 2005, 06:58 PM // 18:58

the problem with the economy is that ArenaNet never took the liberty of keeping track of how many of X(where x is a specific item) are available in the world. So they have no clue as to how many black dyes or gold rams hammers or whatever are out there....Without knowing what the max quantity for an item is it's nearly impossible to accurately build a system based on checks and balances....there is no balance.

It's impossible for the traders now to reflect a realistic economy...there's nothing for the trader to compare it against. So you want to sell 4 ecto plasms....A "TRADER" would say "ok...how many are there in the world and what am I willing to pay to obtain these 4"...if there are only 4 out there the trader would give top dollar for them....if there are 4,000...why would the trader give you top dollar for something he can get cheaper from someone else....problem is nobody(not even ArenaNet) has any idea what items are out there and at what quantity.

Druids Arrow · Jul 18, 2005, 07:00 PM // 19:00

I agree, idea supported I find it quite annoying when I just found a black dye and I go to the trader to see what the current selling price is so I can give my customer a good deal. At one point I could purchase a black dye from the trader for 4 platinum 125 gold. I could only sell the dye to the trader for 1 gold wtf? I would also like to see this 'Supply and Demand' system changed or at least carefully considered.

AeroLion · Jul 18, 2005, 07:05 PM // 19:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Algren Cole

if there are only 4 out there the trader would give top dollar for them....if there are 4,000...why would the trader give you top dollar for something he can get cheaper from someone else....

Because the trader has no idea what's for sale. Knowing that there are X ectos in the world does nothing for the trader unless X is also how many ectos are for sale. That's a big difference.

tanwarv · Jul 18, 2005, 07:25 PM // 19:25

I don't think (amount available) really matters, except when setting the initial prices. Once the system goes live, prices will fix themselves. If prices are too high, people will farm more of those items, selling more to the trader, ultimately resulting in excess inventory at the trader and thereby dropping prices. If prices are too low, the trader will run out of stock, and prices will therefore rise to meet demand.

Sure, setting initial prices will be somewhat important, as a small number of people may be able to take advantage of any ridiculously high or low prices on the onset, but I imagine such things will fix themselves quickly.

AeroLion · Jul 18, 2005, 07:32 PM // 19:32

I agree with you. I was just pointing out why knowing how many of a specific item doesn't help anything.

Algren Cole · Jul 18, 2005, 08:35 PM // 20:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeroLion

Because the trader has no idea what's for sale. Knowing that there are X ectos in the world does nothing for the trader unless X is also how many ectos are for sale. That's a big difference.

everything is for sale.....you should know that living in this world. there isn't a single thing in this world that ISN'T for sale.

EternalTempest · Jul 18, 2005, 08:40 PM // 20:40

I think the main point he was saying is to use the traders to act as an upper limit for the player traders. That way the traders will have hard time spamming and forcing down the price of items that the traders deal with. Compare it to the current changes to the game the idea is not bad. (edit) It will still have the market for "Gold Max X with Y and Z" and such.

I don't know how I feel about it anymore to be honest if having a "false" cap in place or depend on live supply and demand.

Drakron · Jul 18, 2005, 08:40 PM // 20:40

I have 3 items (one with the "precious" tag) that I cannot use and I will not sell, they are those rare items I think were in Beta and were keep in the game because they are cool looking.

Unless you offer me 25 plat for then (and I am not advertise their sale) they will be wasting inventory space.

AeroLion · Jul 18, 2005, 08:48 PM // 20:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Algren Cole

everything is for sale.....you should know that living in this world. there isn't a single thing in this world that ISN'T for sale.

So someone that is actively acquiring ectoplasms for fissure armor is still willing to sell the same ectoplasm they need? Not everything is for sale. Not in the real world and especially not in an MMO where resources are, for all intents and purposes, limitless. Someone who needs and covets item X will not sell that item. And if he or she does, it will be for an extraordinary amount. In either case, keeping track of said item does not help the trader.

prodigy ming · Jul 18, 2005, 09:02 PM // 21:02

can they just fix the game back to when it was fun?
I didn't buy some "Sim-economy"... i brought a online rpg or whatever you want to call it. And when i kill some monster I expect something to drop, maybe not everytime, but certainly more than it is dropping now. also when i want to buy something it shouldn't cost me the amount of gold thats going to require farming to obtain.

Algren Cole · Jul 18, 2005, 09:08 PM // 21:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeroLion

So someone that is actively acquiring ectoplasms for fissure armor is still willing to sell the same ectoplasm they need? Not everything is for sale. Not in the real world and especially not in an MMO where resources are, for all intents and purposes, limitless. Someone who needs and covets item X will not sell that item. And if he or she does, it will be for an extraordinary amount. In either case, keeping track of said item does not help the trader.

yes...they will sell the item...just as you said for an extraordinary amount...but it IS still for sale.

keeping track of what is available in the world does help the trader...it helps the trader put a value on an items rarity. Thus far EVERYONE claims black dye is rare...if it's rare then why do I have 14 of them??? it can't be that rare...but nobody knows exactly how many are in the world of Guild Wars...so we'll just continue assuming black dye is rare without any solid proof other than "It doesn't drop for me". Its common practice for business to provide statistical information of what they sell/provide and in what quantity...the reason they do this is to keep track of what is available and what isn't...this is how they set a price for things(how much of it is available divided by how much is one person selling)

Racthoh · Jul 18, 2005, 09:14 PM // 21:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by prodigy ming

can they just fix the game back to when it was fun?
I didn't buy some "Sim-economy"... i brought a online rpg or whatever you want to call it. And when i kill some monster I expect something to drop, maybe not everytime, but certainly more than it is dropping now. also when i want to buy something it shouldn't cost me the amount of gold thats going to require farming to obtain.

I agree, and that is exactly how I feel. This whole thing has made everything screwy. Just today I noticed that dye trader selling black dye for 9 platinum. What a joke, I checked it the previous day and it was only 6. The trader selling 10 leather square for 5 platinum, but offering me 800 gold for my 10? What kind of economy is this?

What I found even more messed up was that under this system I bought one glob of ecto for 4k. Wish the trader hadn't run out of stock that day...

Rellok · Jul 18, 2005, 09:19 PM // 21:19

I thought that the original economy was based on a buy price that was linked to the sell price. And Anet decided to get rid of that because of the possibility of abuse by heavy material traders?

I think that a percentage based on the selling price would be the best thing, however, there also needs to be a limit on how many items you can sell at a time, or the trader needs to recalculate his offer based on what the items will be worth once they buy all 4000 leather squares.

Matt

And sadly enough, nearly everything is for sale. There are exceptions, but for this illustration, yeah.

AeroLion · Jul 18, 2005, 09:19 PM // 21:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Algren Cole

yes...they will sell the item...just as you said for an extraordinary amount...but it IS still for sale.

keeping track of what is available in the world does help the trader...it helps the trader put a value on an items rarity. Thus far EVERYONE claims black dye is rare...if it's rare then why do I have 14 of them??? it can't be that rare...but nobody knows exactly how many are in the world of Guild Wars...so we'll just continue assuming black dye is rare without any solid proof other than "It doesn't drop for me". Its common practice for business to provide statistical information of what they sell/provide and in what quantity...the reason they do this is to keep track of what is available and what isn't...this is how they set a price for things(how much of it is available divided by how much is one person selling)

How does the trader determine (A) what an "extraordinary" amount is, (B) who will only trade for that amount, and (C) who will trade for less than or more than (A)?

The trader can't because it is a simple economic reality that something that isn't for sale is not part of the market. As an example, if someone's goal is to get fissure armor, they will not sell any ectoplasm or obsidian shards for any price because, if they do, it moves them further from their goal. This is a reality and keeping track of how many shards or ectos they have does nothing to serve the economy since it might as well not be there since said person will not sell it.

The system you're wanting is what we had prior to last Wednesday's price where the trader did, realistically, set the mean price. That was done by buying at 65-75% of the price the trader would then sell for. This was a good balance, as the OP correctly suggests. That way there was always a constant supply and also constant demand. Everyone wins.

tanwarv · Jul 18, 2005, 09:21 PM // 21:21

This black dye inflation is not the result of people suddenly wanting more black dye (post patch). If you try to sell black dye to the trader he will offer you some tiny fraction of his selling price. This is the exact phenomena I mention above with spiraling prices caused by the large delta between buy and sell prices for the same item.

Nightsorrow · Jul 18, 2005, 09:33 PM // 21:33

I think 80% of selling price is a bit extreme - it would slaughter the market even more (Item X costs 1000 to buy at trader, so if you have one, you can either sell it to trader for 800, or trade it for a limited profit of 200 MAX). I think 50% is a much more realistic valuation. And would make more sense with materials , to me anyway.

Oh, and slightly Off-Topic :

Quote:

Originally Posted by Algren Cole

everything is for sale.....you should know that living in this world. there isn't a single thing in this world that ISN'T for sale.

Just had to be put here - not EVERYTHING is for sale in this world. Money can't buy love, can't buy happiness - whereas in GW, arguably money CAN buy happiness, or at least the freedom to do whatever you want in the game.

tanwarv · Jul 18, 2005, 09:41 PM // 21:41

I see your point about 80-100% killing the reason to sell materials to another human. I don't know, but is there a reason you'd actually want to sell commodities to other human beings if you didn't have to? What would be wrong with the idea of eliminating all the WTS/WTB spam for all materials and leaving the trade channel for other stuff?

This could just be me, but I find trying to find a buyer for my materials the least fun I have while playing this game.

tuPadre · Jul 18, 2005, 09:42 PM // 21:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Algren Cole

everything is for sale.....you should know that living in this world. there isn't a single thing in this world that ISN'T for sale.

I would like to know your mother price plz

kleps · Jul 18, 2005, 10:10 PM // 22:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuPadre

I would like to know your mother price plz

what is with all the mindless trolling today?